Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are neck and neck in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, with the incumbent up by just 1 percentage point.
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, 45% of voters said they would choose Biden, while 44% opted for Trump, per a new Harris-Messenger poll conducted by HarrisX. Eleven percent indicated that they are still undecided. The results are within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 points.
The two men are likely to be the Democratic and Republican nominees despite the fact that the majority of voters said neither should run in 2024. According to the poll, 66% of voters don’t believe Biden should seek a second term. Fifty-seven percent said Trump shouldn’t run in 2024.
While voters said Biden and Trump shouldn’t run, they both lead their party’s primary races. More than half of Republican voters, 59%, said they would choose Trump, with his closest competitor being Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), at 14%.
Biden, the incumbent president, would be the choice of 67% of Democratic voters in a primary. However, 15% said they would vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
If Trump continues his significant lead and becomes the Republican nominee, he and Biden will face off in 2024. Trump was the incumbent president in 2020 when he lost to Democratic nominee Biden, who received 306 electoral votes to his 232. Trump lost by roughly 7 million in the popular vote.
Biden would notably be 86 at the end of a second term. This factor could pose a threat to his 2024 odds, with concern over his age increasing in recent years. A new Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll showed that 77% of people think Biden is too old to serve effectively in another term as president. Prior to Biden’s election in 2020, 62% of voters reported having concerns about choosing a candidate over the age of 75. This didn’t stop Biden from winning in 2020.
The new Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research numbers indicate an increased level of concern.